The interplay between domestic and foreign capital will shape India's equity markets.
Without changes to the taxation rules, buybacks are expected to remain scarce.
Indian equity benchmarks rose nearly 2 per cent on Thursday, capping a truncated trading week with their strongest weekly performance in over four years. The rally was sparked by renewed risk-on sentiment following progress in trade negotiations and expanded tariff exemptions.
'Investors should continue with their SIPs, especially during market corrections.' 'For those looking to start new SIPs, beginning with large-cap funds is a prudent strategy, followed by flexi-cap and value-oriented approaches.'
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
Industry players said the sharp sell-off in February forced many companies to put off their listing plans
Gold prices could hit the $3500 an ounce (oz) mark in the next 18 months - up around 13 per cent from the current levels - given the global uncertainties and aided by investment demand, said analysts at BofA Securities in a recent note. Uncertainty around Trump Administration trade policies, BofA said, could continue to push the US dollar (USD) lower, further supporting gold prices near-term.
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
Fundraising by Indian companies through equity and debt reached an all-time high in the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), according to data collated by primedatabase.com. Fundraising through debt stood at Rs 11.1 trillion in FY25, including contributions from InvITs (infrastructure investment trusts) and REITs (real estate investment trusts).
The equity benchmark indices posted their strongest weekly gains in years, driven by bargain hunting and optimism over a reversal in foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows. The Sensex rose 558 points, or 0.7 per cent, on Friday to close at 76,906, while the Nifty 50 gained 160 points to end at 23,350. Over the past five sessions, both indices advanced around 4.3 per cent - marking the Sensex's best weekly performance since July 22, 2022, and the Nifty 50's strongest rally since February 5, 2021.
Since October, FPIs have offloaded Indian equities worth Rs 2.1 trillion.
Information technology (IT) stocks ended at their lowest in nearly nine months after a fresh bout of selling, triggered by concerns over a recession in the US, the key market for domestic software exporters. A report by Morgan Stanley citing risks to growth also weighed on sentiment.
618 companies were part of the billion dollar club when the markets reached all-time highs on September 26, 2024. That number has fallen to 500 following a $1 trillion wipeout in India's market capitalisation amid relentless selling by FPIs.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
'This is also a time when you realise that short-term trading and dabbling in derivatives may result in financial losses.'
India's stock markets corrected recently but foreign money is likely to chase China rather than India in the short-to-medium term, said Chris Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, on Thursday. Wood told the Business Standard Manthan Summit in New Delhi he is bullish about Indian equities from a long-term perspective, but for the short term he is cautious given the quantum of foreign investor (FII) outflows and valuation woes.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
'Even if India is attractive, FPIs currently lack the funds to invest, as money is being redirected to the US.'
Buying stocks during a dip, says Amar Nandu, research analyst, Samco Securities, can lead to higher compounding returns when the uptrend begins.
Shares worth over Rs 50,000 crore (or approximately $6 billion) are set to become freely tradable between now and April 10. Historically, such substantial volumes have been absorbed by a buoyant block-deal market.
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